Wake Forest, North Carolina 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

153
FXUS62 KRAH 251839
AFDRAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
240 PM EDT Fri Jul 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Highly anomalous and strong high pressure aloft will persist over
the Southeast through midweek and result in a prolonged heat wave
over the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Friday...

* A Heat Advisory has expanded to now include all of the eastern
  Piedmont, Sandhills and Coastal Plain of central NC.

* A prolonged and dangerous heat wave begins to take shape.

A highly anomalous mid-upper level anticyclone just off the NC coast
will begin to gradually retrograde today and briefly settle over
GA/SC by Sat morning. Uniform southwesterly to westerly 1000-850mb
flow will develop throughout the day and raise low-level thicknesses
another 5 to 15 m and should support temperatures rising into the
mid 90s in most places by this afternoon, upper 90s possible in
spots. At the same time, surface dew points will struggle to mix out
of the low 70s and support heat indices ranging from 100 to 107
across the forecast area. A Heat Advisory has been expanded to
include the northern Coastal Plain and the rest of the eastern
Piedmont to now include all areas along and east of US-1 and all of
the Triangle. This area is where confidence is greatest that heat
indices of at least 103, moderate HeatRisk (Level 3 out of 4), and
high WBGT (>86 degrees), is highest and will make heat related
illness more probable. This will only be the beginning of the
expected heat wave to affect the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast as
conditions are expected to deteriorate heading into the weekend and
persist into early next week.

Convective coverage still appears to be very limited this afternoon.
An isolated shower/storm may be possible generally south of the US-
64 corridor. This is where the 00z HREF and 18z REFS highlight the
greatest instability of 1500-2500 J/kg of SBCAPE which may be enough
to overcome the subsidence near the center of the H5 anticyclone.
Maintenance of any showers/storms that develop will be difficult and
result in mostly a hit-or-miss variety and minimal development along
respective outflows.

Overnight will likely not provide much relief as temperatures only
dip down to the mid/upper 70s and apparent temperatures remain at-or-
above the mid/upper 70s within the advisory area.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Friday...

*  An Extreme Heat Watch has been issued for the eastern Piedmont,
   Sandhills and Coastal Plain of central NC from Saturday through
   Sunday evening.

The highly anomalous mid/upper level ridge will largely remain
parked over the Southeast through Sat night. Continued gradual
modification of the pre-existing airmass will support another 2-4
degree rise in afternoon high temperatures while dew points struggle
to mix out of the low/mid 70s during peak heating. Hot temperatures,
high humidity, little to no overnight relief, and the beginning of a
prolonged heat wave will support a major to extreme risk for heat-
related illnesses for anyone without adequate cooling or hydration.
To better capture this threat during the weekend timeframe, an
Extreme Heat Watch has been issued and extended through Saturday
night to highlight the anomalous heat and compounding effects of
multiple days of heat. Although heat indices will be marginal for
Extreme Heat Warning criteria (around or just below 110), the
expected impacts from this heat justify its issuance at this time.
Heat remains the largest weather-related killer year after year, and
by a large margin (heat fatalities account for an average of 238
deaths per year, rolling 30 year average, with the next closest
being flooding which accounts for an average of 113 fatalities per
year).

To greatly reduce the effects of this level and duration of
dangerous heat, avoid direct sunlight during the hottest part of the
day, take breaks in air-conditioned rooms often, stay well hydrated,
and know the initial signs of heat-illness onset and take
preventative action immediately. If you have outdoor plans during
the hottest part of the day, consider moving them inside if
possible.

Isolated to widely scattered showers and storms may be possible
during the afternoon, but should remain fairly limited due to close
proximity to the highly anomalous ridge. The only exception will be
any remnant MCV`s from prior upstream convection that drifts into
the area within the northwesterly flow aloft.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 240 PM Friday...

* Dangerous heat likely to continue into the middle of next week.

Sun: A large and anomalously strong mid level anticyclone will
remain centered over SC/GA through Sun, with heights aloft near or
potentially exceeding the historical maximum for that date. Surface
ridging will dominate our area as well, apart from weak troughing at
the coast. Our flow through the column will be light and from the
WNW or NW, with diffluent in the low levels and warmth aloft. PWs
will be elevated, over the 75th percentile, but not remarkable, and
both CAPE and dynamic forcing for ascent will be very limited. Will
maintain isolated pops for now, mainly N and E, but the overall
coverage may be less than 10%. The real story will be the continued
dangerous heat, and even factoring in some mixing-out of dewpoints
in the afternoon with decent mixing up to 800 mb expected, heat
index values are likely to reach 100-113F areawide, with air temps
peaking in the mid 90s to low 100s, thus the Sat configuration of a
heat advisory in the far W and N and an extreme heat warning
elsewhere will be extended through Sun. These multiple days of
intense heat under strong sunshine and with very little breeze
overall will likely lead to significant heat-health concerns,
especially those working/exerting outdoors and those without AC.

Mon-Wed: The mid level heat dome will slide slowly W to the mid and
lower Miss Valley and S Plains through mid week, although some
models show a second anticyclone center forming over the Mid South
and western Carolinas by Wed. Overall, our steering flow will remain
weak but increase a bit from the WNW or NW, which may allow residual
vorticity centers emanating from upstream convection to slide into
our area, esp N and E, prompting isolated to scattered late-day
storms in our area. Coverage will not be high, as storms are apt to
be disorganized given the low deep-layer shear, particularly on Wed
when a second uptick in temps aloft may cut down on the already-
marginal CAPE. With only a weak lee trough through the Piedmont and
perhaps a sea breeze in our far SE, a focus for organized storms
will be largely lacking. Will carry 20-30% pops Mon/Tue and 15-20%
Wed in the afternoon into early evening. Peak heat indices will
again range from 100 to 113F each of these days, so heat alerts will
almost certainly be needed through mid week. Daily high temps will
be in the mid 90s to around 100F, with morning lows in the mid 70s
to near 80. This lack of cooling at night will exacerbate the threat
from heat illnesses.

Thu-Fri: Most models suggest a dip in the northern stream leading to
broad troughing over the Great Lakes, St Lawrence Valley, and
Northeast states late in the week. This dip in our heights aloft
combined with an increase in low level moisture transport into the
area, rising PWs, and improving deep layer bulk shear should support
a bit better storm coverage late-week as the associated backdoor
surface cold front approaches from the N. Thu should still be well
above normal, with highs in the 90s areawide, but the increase in
cloud cover should take a slight edge off the intense heat, as will
the better chance for late-day showers and storms, in the 50-60%
range. Temps should drop back down even closer to normal Fri,
although much depends on how far S the front moves, a detail that is
tough to pinpoint at this range. Expect highs Fri to be down in the
80s to low 90s with a good bit of clouds and good chance to likely
storm chances. -GIH

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM Friday...

TAF period: VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours.
Very isolated showers have developed west of FAY and cannot rule out
one of those showers reaching the airport, although confidence is
not high enough to include a precipitation mention in the TAF. A
dense area of mid-level clouds is moving over INT/GSO, but any
precipitation in this area has remained contained to the mountains.
Diurnal cumulus should disperse at sunset, and with no rain in the
forecast, do not expect any restrictions to develop overnight. Wind
will generally be out of the west-southwest around 5 kt.

Outlook: Isolated diurnal showers and thunderstorms are expected
through the outlook period, which could bring brief restrictions at
any terminal. Any terminal that does receive precipitation would
then have an increased chance of stratus/fog the next morning due to
higher moisture content locally.

&&

.CLIMATE...

Abnormally hot and humid weather starting today and persist well
into next week and will result in a prolonged period of dangerous
heat during the daytime with little overnight relief. High
temperature records will be difficult to break with records in the
low/mid 100s, but the best chance may be Saturday. Long-duration
abnormally warm overnight lows will have a chance to break daily
records through the weekend and likely persist well into next week.


Record High Temperatures:

July 26 (Saturday):
KGSO: 102/1914
KRDU: 101/2005
KFAY: 104/1940

July 27 (Sunday):
KGSO: 104/1914
KRDU: 104/1940
KFAY: 106/1940

July 28 (Monday):
KGSO: 100/1952
KRDU: 104/1952
KFAY: 105/1940

July 29 (Tuesday):
KGSO: 101/1952
KRDU: 104/2011
KFAY: 103/2011

July 30 (Wednesday):
KGSO: 100/1915
KRDU: 101/1953
KFAY: 105/2011


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

July 25 (Friday):
KGSO: 78/2010
KRDU: 80/2010
KFAY: 78/2016

July 26 (Saturday):
KGSO: 76/2016
KRDU: 77/2010
KFAY: 80/2005

July 27 (Sunday):
KGSO: 76/2005
KRDU: 78/1940
KFAY: 79/2016

July 28 (Monday):
KGSO: 74/2023
KRDU: 77/2023
KFAY: 79/2016

July 29 (Tuesday):
KGSO: 75/2010
KRDU: 78/2023
KFAY: 79/2002

July 30 (Wednesday):
KGSO: 77/2011
KRDU: 78/1931
KFAY: 79/2002

July 31 (Thursday):
KGSO: 75/1917
KRDU: 77/2020
KFAY: 78/1941

&&

.RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 11 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for NCZ007>009-
021-022-038-039-073-074-083.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ008>011-024>028-
040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089.
Extreme Heat Warning from 11 AM Saturday to 8 PM EDT Sunday for
NCZ010-011-023>028-040>043-075>078-084>086-088-089.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Swiggett
NEAR TERM...Swiggett
SHORT TERM...Swiggett
LONG TERM...Hartfield
AVIATION...Green
CLIMATE...RAH